PENDING HOME SALES, NEW HOME SALES, THE FED, THE GDP… This week isn’t missing much in the way of interesting topics. December Pending Home Sales come Wednesday, forecast down a bit after a November gain. The Fed’s FOMC Rate Decision shouldn’t change anything, but for the first time, Fed member’s outlooks on interest rates will be released. Following this will be Chairman Bernanke’s press conference and that could be interesting.
December New Home Sales happen Thursday, projected to inch up a bit. Friday we get how the overall economy did in Q4, with the Advanced GDP estimate. Gross Domestic Product is expected to climb from an anemic 1.8% to a more acceptable 3.1%.
>> The Week’s Economic Indicator Calendar
Weaker than expected economic data tends to send bond prices up and interest rates down, while positive data points to lower bond prices and rising loan rates.
Economic Calendar for the Week of Jan 23 – Jan 27
| Date | Time (ET) | Release | For | Consensus | Prior | Impact |
| W Jan 25 |
10:00 | Pending Home Sales | Dec | -3.0% | 7.3% | Moderate |
| W Jan 25 |
10:30 | Crude Inventories | 1/21 | NA | -3.438M | Moderate |
| W Jan 25 |
12:30 | FOMC Rate Decision | 1/25 | 0%-0.25% | 0%-0.25% | HIGH |
| Th Jan 26 |
08:30 | Initial Unemployment Claims | 1/21 | 375K | 352K | Moderate |
| Th Jan 26 |
08:30 | Continuing Unemployment Claims | 1/14 | 3.550M | 3.432M | Moderate |
| Th Jan 26 |
08:30 | Durable Goods Orders | Dec | 2.0% | 3.7% | Moderate |
| Th Jan 26 |
10:00 | New Home Sales | Dec | 322K | 315K | Moderate |
| Th Jan 26 |
10:00 | Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) | Dec | 0.7% | 0.5% | Moderate |
| F Jan 27 |
08:30 | GDP-Adv. | Q4 | 3.1% | 1.8% | Moderate |
| F Jan 27 |
08:30 | GDP Chain Deflator-Adv. | Q4 | 1.5% | 2.6% | Moderate |
| F Jan 27 |
09:55 | U. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment-Final | Jan | 74.2 | 74.0 | Moderate |
>> Federal Reserve Watch
Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months… Virtually all the experts say the Fed Funds Rate will stay at its super low level coming out of this week’s FOMC meeting. Note: In the lower chart, a 1% probability of change is a 99% certainty the rate will stay the same.
Current Fed Funds Rate: 0%–0.25%
| After FOMC meeting on: | Consensus |
| Jan 25 | 0%–0.25% |
| Mar 13 | 0%–0.25% |
| Apr 25 | 0%–0.25% |
Probability of change from current policy:
| After FOMC meeting on: | Consensus |
| Jan 25 | <1% |
| Mar 13 | <1% |
| Apr 25 | <1% |
